2020年，新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入停擺。這是一場(chǎng)史無前例的全球危機(jī)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨著需求供給雙重沖擊，任何經(jīng)濟(jì)體都難以獨(dú)善其身。值此變局關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻，本站財(cái)經(jīng)聯(lián)合上海交通大學(xué)上海高級(jí)金融學(xué)院、北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院以“全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與政策選擇”為主題，邀請(qǐng)政商學(xué)企界嘉賓通過線上形式解析全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)。

全球蔓延的疫情給各國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來了哪些影響？是否令社會(huì)貧困問題的解決更具挑戰(zhàn)性？“全球化”會(huì)不會(huì)因此走向終結(jié)？5月8日，本站財(cái)經(jīng)總監(jiān)張濤與美國著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、2019年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主之一的阿比吉特·班納吉圍繞上述問題展開了一場(chǎng)《危機(jī)對(duì)話》。

作為一名印度裔美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，阿比吉特·班納吉與妻子埃絲特·迪弗洛共同發(fā)表了大量學(xué)術(shù)論文；2019年，諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)授予三位“在減少貧困人口方面做出卓越研究和貢獻(xiàn)”的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，班納吉和迪費(fèi)洛便是其中兩位。

班納吉在自己的著作中曾經(jīng)表達(dá)過一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)——“社會(huì)嚴(yán)重撕裂和對(duì)立，對(duì)話的空間在縮小，兩極分化嚴(yán)重”。對(duì)此，本站財(cái)經(jīng)提問道，“在新冠肺炎疫情的影響下，這種‘撕裂’現(xiàn)象變得越發(fā)嚴(yán)重，究竟是什么原因造成了這種災(zāi)難現(xiàn)象？”

班納吉在對(duì)話中指出，兩極分化實(shí)際上是一直存在的。對(duì)于那些想把自己置身事外的政客來說，他們會(huì)利用現(xiàn)在這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)來指責(zé)他人；或是為民粹主義吶喊，或是討論優(yōu)越和低劣，或者指責(zé)某些國家來負(fù)責(zé)。

班納吉將政客這種表現(xiàn)歸因于內(nèi)心的恐慌。

“當(dāng)人們感到害怕時(shí)，大腦的某一角落總會(huì)冒出一些想法，比如，‘這個(gè)人該對(duì)此負(fù)責(zé)嗎？’‘我們?cè)撝肛?zé)這個(gè)人嗎？’人們很容易這樣想?！卑嗉{吉解釋道。

對(duì)于如何解決這個(gè)問題，班納吉表示，“我們需要建立信心，堅(jiān)信我們不會(huì)失去，堅(jiān)信我們可以做到。我們不應(yīng)該退縮，變成擔(dān)心后果的一群人。當(dāng)我們看到挑釁性的事情時(shí)，應(yīng)該保持平靜。我認(rèn)為這是對(duì)國家、國際社會(huì)，對(duì)我們共同努力的堅(jiān)信。這，才是最好的解決辦法?！?/p>

以下為本站財(cái)經(jīng)與班納吉對(duì)話實(shí)錄：

IFENG: You published Poor Economics ten years ago and listed many causes of poverty. In my understanding, many people were born to be poor. Currently, due to the global outbreak of Coronavirus, some people fall into poverty. Do you have any solution for this new kind of poverty?

張濤： 您十年前的著作《貧窮的本質(zhì)》，提到了很多貧窮的成因，但我理解書里講的很多人是天生貧窮?，F(xiàn)在的一個(gè)問題是，因?yàn)樾鹿诜窝滓咔榈挠绊懡?jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)衰退，造成了很多人開始陷入貧困；針對(duì)日益加劇的貧困現(xiàn)象，您有什么好的解決辦法？

Banerjee: In terms of what this Coronavirus pandemic might do to long-term poverty, I think it’s too soon to close the book. I think we have seen episodes where there is a large shock. But the economies recover fast. Most of the people who are poor who are basically less poor now because they are earning money now. We’ll also start earning money and again recover the economic status. I think most poor people will have lost some of their saving. But they don’t have so much saving. That’s not the source of long-term poverty for them.

班納吉：我并不認(rèn)為新冠肺炎疫情可能會(huì)造成長(zhǎng)期貧困，現(xiàn)在下結(jié)論還為時(shí)過早。事實(shí)上大多數(shù)窮人已然通過工作賺錢而擺脫了貧窮，現(xiàn)在也一樣。誠然，疫情對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了巨大沖擊，經(jīng)濟(jì)開始出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇，并將快速恢復(fù)，人們也將再次開始賺錢擺脫貧窮。有些人會(huì)因?yàn)槭ゲ糠址e蓄而變成窮人，但他們本就沒有那么多的存款；這次新冠肺炎疫情并不是他們長(zhǎng)期貧困的根源。

IFENG: In your book Good Economics, you mentioned that the society is divided and antagonized, with a shrinking space for the dialogue and an increasing level of polarization. Amid pandemic, we notice that this phenomenon has become more visible and serious. What is the root of this social disruption and polarization?

張濤：在《好的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》一書里，有一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)：社會(huì)嚴(yán)重撕裂和對(duì)立，對(duì)話的空間在縮小，兩極分化嚴(yán)重；在新冠肺炎疫情的影響下，這種“撕裂”現(xiàn)象越發(fā)嚴(yán)重，造成這種災(zāi)難現(xiàn)象的根本原因是什么？

Banerjee: I think the polarization is always an option. For politicians who are to stay out of a place for themselves, they will use this opportunity to blame somebody. To claim that you know either nationalistic gestures, or you know claims of superiority and inferiority and who’s responsible. We absolutely see it right now. But it’s one of the things that, I think, when people are frightened, it’s always something that people will sort of in the corner of mind comes up. Say you know “is this someone who’s responsible?” Is this someone who should be blamed? I think that’s easy to have that. I think what we need is confidence building in not losing our confidence that we can do it and we shouldn’t shrink down into a group of who worrying about consequences. We should hold our peace when people see provocative things, ignore them. I think that’s a big confidence in the role of the state and in the role of the international community, in what we can do together. That’s the best recipe.

班納吉：我認(rèn)為兩極分化是一直存在的。對(duì)于那些想把自己置身事外的政客來說，他們會(huì)利用現(xiàn)在這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)來指責(zé)他人；或是為民粹主義吶喊，或是討論優(yōu)越和低劣，或者指責(zé)某些國家來負(fù)責(zé)。當(dāng)人們感到恐慌時(shí)，大腦的某一角落總會(huì)冒出一些想法，比如，“這個(gè)人該對(duì)此負(fù)責(zé)嗎？”“我們?cè)撝肛?zé)這個(gè)人嗎？”人們很容易這樣想。我認(rèn)為，我們需要建立信心，堅(jiān)信我們不會(huì)失去，堅(jiān)信我們可以做到。我們不應(yīng)該退縮，變成擔(dān)心后果的一群人。當(dāng)我們看到挑釁性的事情時(shí)，應(yīng)該保持平靜。我認(rèn)為這是對(duì)國家、國際社會(huì)，對(duì)我們共同努力的堅(jiān)信。這，才是最好的解決辦法。

IFENG: In your book Good Economics, you would like to make economics great again. My personal feeling is that people like to accept some economists’ viewpoints, but fail to understand economics from a historical perspective. If we put economists’ opinions in the long run of history, can we understand them better?

張濤：《好的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》里有一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)，讓經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)再次偉大。我的一個(gè)感受，很多對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的誤解和批判，其實(shí)是因?yàn)槿藗兺菀捉邮苣骋环N經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)觀點(diǎn)，但很少有人系統(tǒng)地從經(jīng)濟(jì)史學(xué)的角度去驗(yàn)證經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)觀點(diǎn)的成敗得失。從歷史的角度來看，我們是不是能更好理解經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家觀點(diǎn)的局限和成功之處？如果人們更具備經(jīng)濟(jì)史學(xué)的眼光，他們的判斷和認(rèn)知會(huì)不好好一點(diǎn)？

Banerjee: I’m not sure I particularly understand the view that you know this is somehow we have to understand the economics in a historical perspective. I do think is that what economics has fair to do is just convey the knowns nature of economic evidence. The evidence is often not, you cannot read naively. That you need to kind of think about why that evidence may or may not reliable. And interpret it with some care. I think that if we do that, I’m confident that we can make progress. The whole point of our book was of good economics for hard times, was to give us a sense of how modern economics reasons. And modern economics is not an ideological domain where they are just domain of the pronouncements. It’s a domain of discuss logic where we kind of go into piece of evidence and think of how they could be interpreted and misinterpreted. If they do that carefully, and what we try to do in the book in particular to get everybody else, the reader in particular, to understand how to participate in that process, to themselves inquiry of evidence and not take it for granted. Be open to different interpretations. Try to see how to put together a bunch piece of evidence, chain them together to make a stronger case. That’s sort of the project of our book and hopefully that will make people appreciate why they should dig economics more seriously, not as a source of ideological talks, but as a source of scientific attitudes and scientific facts.

班納吉：我認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)要做的就是傳遞已知的經(jīng)濟(jì)證據(jù)本質(zhì)。這些證據(jù)往往不是人們天真以為的東西，你需要思考為什么這些證據(jù)是可靠的，或是不可靠的，并且小心地解讀它。如果我們堅(jiān)持這樣做，我相信一定會(huì)進(jìn)步。我們這本書的重點(diǎn)是艱難時(shí)期的好經(jīng)濟(jì)，是讓我們了解現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是如何推理的?，F(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)并不是一個(gè)意識(shí)形態(tài)的領(lǐng)域，也不是發(fā)表聲明的領(lǐng)域，而是一個(gè)討論邏輯的領(lǐng)域。我們會(huì)深入研究一些證據(jù)，并思考它們是如何被解讀和誤讀的。

其實(shí)我們?cè)跁幸苍噲D讓讀者去理解如何參與到這個(gè)過程中，讓他們自己去探尋證據(jù)而不是想當(dāng)然，讓他們對(duì)不同的解讀持開放態(tài)度，并試著看如何把各種證據(jù)整合到一起，形成一個(gè)更有力的論據(jù)。這也是我們寫這本書的一個(gè)目的，希望這能讓人們明白為什么他們應(yīng)該更認(rèn)真地研究經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，不要把它作為意識(shí)形態(tài)對(duì)話的來源，而是作為科學(xué)態(tài)度和科學(xué)事實(shí)的來源。

IFENG: In Good Economics, you list some principles and try to convey them to your reader. If you can pick only one rule for your reader, which one would you choose?

張濤：《好的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》想向公眾傳達(dá)的幾個(gè)觀點(diǎn)，如果做個(gè)排序，會(huì)怎么排？

Banerjee: Among the principles we listed in Good Economics, I think perhaps the most important principle is the principle of skepticism. I think of being, not being convinced by evidence that looks plausible. Or the principle of being open to alternative interpretation. So try to inquire the data that they look or may look this way but it doesn’t have to be. Often times the reason why we end up in the wrong place is because we don’t interpret the evidence. Now if we don’t think what alternative reason enough, we kind of act naively. So I think perhaps the principle of skepticism of being open to different interpretations being inherently willing to mistrust easy formula. You know the world is a complex place. We need to think of each situation on its own. I think that’s the best recipe we have.

班納吉：在這本書所列出的原則，我認(rèn)為最重要的是“懷疑”原則——不要輕易被看似合理的證據(jù)說服，要對(duì)其他解釋持開放態(tài)度。我們要試著去深究那些可能看起來是這樣、但不一定只能是這樣的數(shù)據(jù)。很多時(shí)候我們之所以會(huì)得出錯(cuò)誤的結(jié)論，是因?yàn)槲覀儧]有深究這些證據(jù)背后所有可能的理論。我想傳達(dá)的“懷疑”原則是，對(duì)不同解釋持開放態(tài)度，本能地不相信簡(jiǎn)單公式。要知道世界是復(fù)雜的，我們需要獨(dú)立思考每一種可能。

IFENG: In the context of the pandemic outbreak and economic recession, what’s your solution for today’s economy? Can we turn the economy better in this disastrous situation?

張濤：在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退的背景下，如何讓經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)向好？

Banerjee: In term of the pandemic, I think that what we can, I think, presumably and frankly say is that this is going to be an immediate demand shock, that lots of people would have lost their earning capacity and therefore in the short trend is the spending capacity. If we don’t restore the spending capacity, then the economy will shrink. And so I think the most important simple economic lesson we have is that government should be in a position to bump the economy, so that the supply forces must be in demand.

And the natural economic forces which stick supply into demand, and demand into further incomes, and then into further demand again. I think that chain will reopen. That’s critical that we do that.

班納吉：我想可以直截了當(dāng)?shù)卣f，疫情導(dǎo)致了需求銳減。許多人會(huì)喪失收入能力，從而短期內(nèi)失去消費(fèi)能力。而如果消費(fèi)能力得不到恢復(fù)，將會(huì)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮。最重要也最簡(jiǎn)單的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論告訴我們，政府應(yīng)該采取經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激手段，以使得供給與需求相互匹配。自然的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中，有效供給會(huì)創(chuàng)造相應(yīng)的需求，需求體現(xiàn)收入和購買力，并進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大需求。我認(rèn)為這個(gè)鏈條將會(huì)重新啟動(dòng)，能否做到這一點(diǎn)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)向好至關(guān)重要。

IFENG: The Economist recently published a cover story—The Globalization is over. Do you share the same view? What’s your perspective on globalization?

張濤：全球化遭遇到重大挑戰(zhàn)，《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》近期的封面文章是，全球化終結(jié)。全球化終結(jié)了嗎？

Banerjee: Actually, I’m not particularly pessimistic yet about globalization. I think the degree of globalization might vary a little. But I think that the degree its supply depends on China for example is just so enormous that whatever I don’t believe that it’s going to be an end. I just think that’s going to be, you know maybe their exchange will move a little bit. But I don’t, finally I don’t believe that the globalization is going to be over. I think maybe a particular level of enthusiasm for globalization will be questioned, and maybe it should be questioned a little bit, because I think there is maybe a na?ve commitment to it in some circles. But I think overall I don’t believe it’s going to be the end of globalization.

班納吉：實(shí)際上我對(duì)全球化并不十分悲觀，但我認(rèn)為全球化的程度可能會(huì)有所變化。目前全球供給鏈對(duì)一些國家，比如中國，的依賴程度如此之大，以至于無論如何我都不相信全球化會(huì)很快終結(jié)。我只是認(rèn)為，也許匯率會(huì)為了適應(yīng)這一點(diǎn)而有所變動(dòng)。人們可能會(huì)對(duì)之前全球化過熱的現(xiàn)象提出質(zhì)疑和反思，這種質(zhì)疑是必須的，因?yàn)槲矣X得之前在一些貿(mào)易圈內(nèi)的承諾過于幼稚。但總體而言，我不認(rèn)為這會(huì)是全球化的終結(jié)。

IFENG: A Chinese philosopher asked a question at the end of his life—will this world be a better place? What’s your answer to this question?

張濤：中國有一位哲學(xué)家在臨終時(shí)問了一個(gè)問題，這個(gè)世界會(huì)好嗎？您的答案是什么？

Banerjee: At the end of my life, I actually believe the world will be a better place. I still think that just in my lifetime, I have seen enormous improvements, enormous problems as well. I think the climate problem is potentially catastrophe. We need to do something about it. But I have hope that we will and especially this pandemic might persuade us that you know trifle with nature powers is dangerous. And I think that on the other hand, we have achieved a lot. A lot of people who used to be desperately poor are less desperately poor now. Enormous reduction in world poverty, and not just in China, in lots of places in Bangladesh, in Vietnam, in Pakistan, in India, in Cambodia. So I think in all of those things will contribute to, have contributed to a better world. And I feel that the same forces will do more good things for the world.

班納吉：到我生命將結(jié)束時(shí)，我會(huì)認(rèn)為，世界變得更好了。在我的一生中，我看到了世界的巨大進(jìn)步，當(dāng)然也看到了巨大的問題——我認(rèn)為氣候變化是一個(gè)潛在的災(zāi)難，我希望人們能意識(shí)到并為此采取行動(dòng)。這次疫情讓我們知道，輕視自然的力量是危險(xiǎn)的。但是另一方面，在全球范圍內(nèi)貧困問題得到極大的解決，處于極度貧困的人口銳減，包括中國、孟加拉、越南、巴基斯坦、印度、柬埔寨等。這些事情有助于建立一個(gè)更好的世界。同樣的力量也將為世界帶來更多好的變化。

編者注：阿比吉特·班納吉是美國著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、美國麻省理工學(xué)院福特基金會(huì)國際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授，同時(shí)也是Abdul Latif Jameel貧困行動(dòng)實(shí)驗(yàn)室的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人，該實(shí)驗(yàn)室是貧困行動(dòng)創(chuàng)新研究的附屬機(jī)構(gòu)，也是金融系統(tǒng)和貧困聯(lián)合會(huì)的成員。2019年10月14日，2019年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)在瑞典揭曉，由阿比吉特·班納吉等三人摘得獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)，以表彰他們“在減輕全球貧困方面的實(shí)驗(yàn)性做法”。

專題：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)如何快速復(fù)蘇？清北上交的教授這樣支招